Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures saw 9 to 11 1/4 cent gains in most contracts on Friday, with July expiring and Sep closing 3.53% higher on the week. Traders shrugged off larger USDA numbers from Thursday, as weather forecasts are starting to heat up for the rest of July. A private export sale of 104,100 MT of corn for 19/20 delivery to Panama was reported by USDA this morning. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated money managers adding 5,520 contracts to their net long position in the week that ended on July 9 to 187,168 contracts. Thursday’s balance sheet update from USDA showed the projected 19/20 US cash average price at $3.70, down a dime from the June report. USDA also cut 100 mbu to the old crop export projection to 2.1 bbu. Buenos Aires Grain Exchange pegs Argentina’s corn harvest at 53.1% complete, compared to the 5-year average of 64.2%.

JUL 19 Corn closed at $4.49 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents,

SEP 19 Corn closed at $4.54 1/4, up 10 cents,

DEC 19 Corn closed at $4.59 1/4, up 11 1/4 cents

MAR 20 Corn closed at $4.65, up 10 1/2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures posted 10 to 14 1/4 cent gains in most contracts on Friday, with August up 4.25% this week. Expiring July soybean meal was up $1.70/ton, with soy oil 4 points higher. Prior to Monday’s NOPA report, analysts expect NOPA to show 154.405 mbu of soybeans crushed by its members in June. Soy oil stocks are seen at 1.527 billion lbs. CFTC data showed spec funds in soybean futures and options adding 4,984 contracts to their net short position, at -41,934 contracts as of Tuesday. USDA raised the average cash soybean price for 19/20 by another 15 cents to $8.40 on Thursday. Chinese imports of soybeans from all destinations during June totaled 6.51 MMT, that was an 11.5% drop from May and 25% lower than the same month last year.

JUL 19 Soybeans closed at $9.06 3/4, up 10 1/2 cents,

AUG 19 Soybeans closed at $9.13 1/4, up 14 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans closed at $9.19, up 14 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $9.31 1/2, up 14 1/4 cents,

JUL 19 Soybean Meal closed at $313.30, up $1.70,

JUL 19 Soybean Oil closed at $28.11, up $0.04

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures closed firm to 5 3/4 cents higher in most contracts, as July futures expired this afternoon with no trades. KC was working on narrowing the spread with CBT, up 5%, with Chicago 1.55% higher. On Thursday, USDA trimmed the old crop cash price for wheat by 4 cents to $5.16, with the new crop average price up a dime to $5.20. The balance sheet also saw a 50 mbu increase to new crop exports to 950 mbu, with feed and residual up 10 mbu to 150 mbu. The projected 1 bbu carryout would also be a 4-year low if realized. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that 85.8% of the Argentine wheat crop is planted as of 7/10, above the 80% average.

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.23, up 1 1/2 cents,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.67 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.42 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures were 25 to 65 cents higher in most contracts on Friday. Feeder cattle futures were weighted down by strength in corn, 57.5 cents to $1.025 lower. August feeders were still 2% higher this week. The CME feeder cattle index was up another $1.49 @ $141.08 on July 11. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Friday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 97 cents at $212.80 with Select boxes $1.19 lower @ $189.60. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 655,000 head through Saturday. That was 5,000 head above the same week last year. USDA reported a few $182-185 sales in the beef and $113.5-115 live in the North this week, with the South showing trade of $112 on Friday.

AUG 19 Cattle closed at $108.475, up $0.600,

OCT 19 Cattle closed at $109.975, up $0.650,

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $114.225, up $0.450,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $141.600, down $1.025

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.550, down $0.725

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.850, down $0.575

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures ended Friday with $1.325 to $1.625 gains, as soon to expire July (Monday) was down 55 cents. August was up 4.67% on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 12 cents from the previous day @ $70.65 on July 10. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 52 cents in the Friday PM report at $71.65. The often-volatile belly primal was down $6.15 after being $16.46 lower at noon. The national average base hog price was up 16 cents on Friday at $67.99. Estimated weekly FI hog slaughter was 2.415 million head through Saturday. That was well above the same week last year.

JUL 19 Hogs closed at $71.050, down $0.550,

AUG 19 Hogs closed at $80.650, up $1.475

OCT 19 Hogs closed at $73.225, up $1.625

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures posted a loss of 6.29% in December futures this week, with most contracts 26 to 58 points lower on Friday. The Commitment of Traders report on Friday showed specs pushing their record net short position to 41,727 contracts in the week that ended on 7/9, a bearish nudge of another 4,062 contracts. Thursday’s WASDE update showed USDA trimming their projected 19/20 cash average by another penny to 63 cents/lb. The CFTC Cotton On-Call report showed December unfixed call sales of 32,320 contracts for mills, with unfixed call purchased of 38,945 contracts for December. The Cotlook A index for July 10 was up 50 points from the previous day at 74.80 cents/lb. The weekly AWP was updated to 58.05 cents/lb, down 127 points from the week prior.

OCT 19 Cotton closed at 62.63, down 26 points,

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 62.62, down 46 points

MAR 19 Cotton closed at 63.68, down 52 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 64.64, down 58 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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